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Analysis: The community is adopting a cautious to bearish stance on the crypto market, with market interest shifting towards the metal market
BlockBeats News, December 26th, Greek.Live researcher Adam posted on social media that the community remains cautious to bearish on the cryptocurrency market, with traders preferring to sell option premiums rather than make directional bets.
The key trading activity is concentrated around the December 26th option expiration price of $88,770, with traders discussing the max pain point at $98,134. The probability model shows a 2x standard deviation for a 6-month outlook at -$17,000. Market interest is also shifting towards the metals market.
Option Strategy Shift - Premium Selling in an Uncertain Market:
• Traders are planning to implement bullish call spreads and naked put selling option strategies, focusing on overall selling more call options while maintaining short-term call and put positions in a specific ratio to capture premiums in a low conviction environment;
• One trader executed an ETH sold strangle combination, with a strike price of 2750/3150, expiring on January 2nd, although it is advised to wait and watch, highlighting the challenge of overtrading during thin holiday liquidity;
• Consensus is forming to avoid trading until next Monday, as traders recognize that selling short-term call spreads and long-term naked put options may be the optimal approach, although some are considering shifting to a simple iron condor strategy given the market uncertainty.
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