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Found a "meme coin" that skyrocketed in just a few days. Any tips?
This year in the crypto world, there is a concept that cannot be ignored, which is the "Meme Coin." Over the past week, the price of $RAVE has been continuously rising, reaching a peak of about 40 times its value from a week ago. Today, $RAVE's market cap has reached the 41st position in the market.
From the recent $SIREN, $STO, to the earlier $PIPPIN, $RIVER, $BEAT, $MYX, and others. Regardless of how the market is performing, although the "Meme Coin" is seen as an asymmetric information game between retail traders and whales, there are always players who, in the pursuit of volatility, diligently analyze and try to capture the logic behind the "Meme Coin" to find the path to success.
Even in the Chinese community, there has gradually emerged a complete study of "Meme Coin."
What is a "Meme Coin"?
If the definition of a "Meme Coin" is simply "rising fast and rising sharply," then the study of "Meme Coin" would not exist. The essence of retail traders playing with "Meme Coins" is a direct game against whales, trying to carve out a piece from the whale's manipulation.
Based on this essence, KOL Crypto Skanda (@thecryptoskanda) has provided a detailed definition of "Meme Coin," outlining the foundation of "Meme Coin" study:
- Spot control rate is basically above 96%
- Has a Binance contract, with the presence of spot trading being less important
- Usually funded through off-exchange margin trading, creating violent up and down price swings in a short period, accumulating significant liquidity and counterparty positions
- Whales profit by triggering long and short liquidations, taking advantage of taker fees, and ultimately completing the liquidation process to exit their spot positions
How to Identify a "Meme Coin"?
On this issue, different players have provided excellent reference points from different perspectives.
Anomalies in open interest of futures contracts can be reflected in various ways, primarily through "data manipulation." On April 11, @Arya_web3 found that the 24-hour open interest data of $RAVE on that day was $60 million on Binance, Bitget, BingX, OKX, and Bybit, respectively. Based on this data and the overall open interest data of each exchange, she speculated that there were anomalies in the data of BingX and Bitget when horizontally compared, indicating a possible manipulation of open interest data.
In addition, the 24-hour trading volume of the $RAVE contract on the day reached $6.9 billion, with a contract holding of $300 million. The whale manipulated the price up by 10x from the bottom, yet there wasn't a single large liquidation order, further deepening the possibility of contract data manipulation. She also mentioned that by observing where liquidation contract orders are concentrated, it can also serve as evidence of whether the open interest data on some exchanges is being manipulated.
@thecryptoskanda summarized and added to the above observations:
- The lower the median percentage of open interest on Binance's contracts, the higher the degree of manipulation by whales.
- A high contract volume/open interest ratio indicates a high likelihood of open interest data manipulation.
- This means that any strategy solely monitoring contract trading volume or open interest volume is inappropriate, as it is highly likely that whales are intentionally ceasing to manipulate open interest data to lure retail investors into the market.
You might say, this analysis of "meme coins" is based on data that has already occurred or is currently happening. Is there a way to analyze them before a "meme coin" pumps?
No. In the words of @thecryptoskanda:
"Meme coins do not become meme coins because they meet certain criteria. It's because they were always meant to be meme coins that they exhibit those criteria. Meme coins never play by the rules of the overall market; they only have one concern—does it have a whale?"
How to Identify an Impending "Meme Coin" Collapse
The first perspective was proposed by @wuk_Bitcoin, the "Divergence between Price and Open Interest," which can be used to determine if a "meme coin" is nearing a collapse. @wuk_Bitcoin stated that a rising price coupled with continuously decreasing open interest is a sign of an imminent collapse.
"The main players close out all long positions at the top, then support the price to attract more counterparty trades, allowing retail or electronic trades to perform long arbitrage. With counterparties in place, they can quietly add short positions. Once the short layout is complete, they remove the support price orders, strategically crash the market, simultaneously adding more short positions, continuing to plummet the price until a complete collapse occurs."
He also emphasized that it is necessary to look at the hourly data, as smaller timeframes may not reveal the intentions of the main players.
This perspective also has certain flaws, as mentioned earlier regarding "data manipulation." However, by narrowing the observation timeframe for open interest volume, another perspective arises: "a large-scale liquidation causing a sudden drop in open interest leading to the whale's exit."
This angle was proposed by @CryptoRounder and elaborated on by @thecryptoskanda:
"The price at a certain level triggered a large number of liquidations, leading to a sharp drop in open interest in futures contracts, the disappearance of sell pressure from short positions, and the unwillingness of whales to sustain the high price, signaling a more precise market top."
While the above two angles emphasize "how to escape before the rug pull," this is also the most rational decision retail players can make in the extremely asymmetric game of "rug pull" — finding the point at which whales decide to exit, and designing trades around that point. After all, before the "rug pull," whales can repeatedly perform long and short squeezes, and once whales truly exit and stop supporting the price, the downtrend of the "rug pull" becomes irreversible.
Closing Thoughts
Although various experts are working hard to find a stable path to profit on "rug pulls," and we have seen many sharp angles, we must always remember that the reason why it can be called a "rug pull" is because its whale control rate is as high as 95% or even more.
Although we can discover traces of whale manipulation from many perspectives and even achieve victory in the "rug pull" game through data analysis, each "rug pull" situation is difficult to summarize through analysis and replicate in every game.
The whale behind the "rug pull" is the one who holds the script, they can deceive retail players through data manipulation or harvest profits from retail players in various ways.
According to @Arya_web3's speculation, the cost of manipulating open interest data for whales is not high. Based on a $70 billion 24-hour contract trading volume, calculated at a 0.005% fee rate, the 24-hour cost is only $350,000.
If the core of trading "rug pulls" lies in "anticipating whale actions," the difficulty is akin to gambling with someone holding the script, betting on the next scene in the script. Such difficulty, like opening the divine eye, can be called "superhuman-level."
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Before using Musk's "Western WeChat" X Chat, you need to understand these three questions
The X Chat will be available for download on the App Store this Friday. The media has already covered the feature list, including self-destructing messages, screenshot prevention, 481-person group chats, Grok integration, and registration without a phone number, positioning it as the "Western WeChat." However, there are three questions that have hardly been addressed in any reports.
There is a sentence on X's official help page that is still hanging there: "If malicious insiders or X itself cause encrypted conversations to be exposed through legal processes, both the sender and receiver will be completely unaware."
No. The difference lies in where the keys are stored.
In Signal's end-to-end encryption, the keys never leave your device. X, the court, or any external party does not hold your keys. Signal's servers have nothing to decrypt your messages; even if they were subpoenaed, they could only provide registration timestamps and last connection times, as evidenced by past subpoena records.
X Chat uses the Juicebox protocol. This solution divides the key into three parts, each stored on three servers operated by X. When recovering the key with a PIN code, the system retrieves these three shards from X's servers and recombines them. No matter how complex the PIN code is, X is the actual custodian of the key, not the user.
This is the technical background of the "help page sentence": because the key is on X's servers, X has the ability to respond to legal processes without the user's knowledge. Signal does not have this capability, not because of policy, but because it simply does not have the key.
The following illustration compares the security mechanisms of Signal, WhatsApp, Telegram, and X Chat along six dimensions. X Chat is the only one of the four where the platform holds the key and the only one without Forward Secrecy.
The significance of Forward Secrecy is that even if a key is compromised at a certain point in time, historical messages cannot be decrypted because each message has a unique key. Signal's Double Ratchet protocol automatically updates the key after each message, a mechanism lacking in X Chat.
After analyzing the X Chat architecture in June 2025, Johns Hopkins University cryptology professor Matthew Green commented, "If we judge XChat as an end-to-end encryption scheme, this seems like a pretty game-over type of vulnerability." He later added, "I would not trust this any more than I trust current unencrypted DMs."
From a September 2025 TechCrunch report to being live in April 2026, this architecture saw no changes.
In a February 9, 2026 tweet, Musk pledged to undergo rigorous security tests of X Chat before its launch on X Chat and to open source all the code.
As of the April 17 launch date, no independent third-party audit has been completed, there is no official code repository on GitHub, the App Store's privacy label reveals X Chat collects five or more categories of data including location, contact info, and search history, directly contradicting the marketing claim of "No Ads, No Trackers."
Not continuous monitoring, but a clear access point.
For every message on X Chat, users can long-press and select "Ask Grok." When this button is clicked, the message is delivered to Grok in plaintext, transitioning from encrypted to unencrypted at this stage.
This design is not a vulnerability but a feature. However, X Chat's privacy policy does not state whether this plaintext data will be used for Grok's model training or if Grok will store this conversation content. By actively clicking "Ask Grok," users are voluntarily removing the encryption protection of that message.
There is also a structural issue: How quickly will this button shift from an "optional feature" to a "default habit"? The higher the quality of Grok's replies, the more frequently users will rely on it, leading to an increase in the proportion of messages flowing out of encryption protection. The actual encryption strength of X Chat, in the long run, depends not only on the design of the Juicebox protocol but also on the frequency of user clicks on "Ask Grok."
X Chat's initial release only supports iOS, with the Android version simply stating "coming soon" without a timeline.
In the global smartphone market, Android holds about 73%, while iOS holds about 27% (IDC/Statista, 2025). Of WhatsApp's 3.14 billion monthly active users, 73% are on Android (according to Demand Sage). In India, WhatsApp covers 854 million users, with over 95% Android penetration. In Brazil, there are 148 million users, with 81% on Android, and in Indonesia, there are 112 million users, with 87% on Android.
WhatsApp's dominance in the global communication market is built on Android. Signal, with a monthly active user base of around 85 million, also relies mainly on privacy-conscious users in Android-dominant countries.
X Chat circumvented this battlefield, with two possible interpretations. One is technical debt; X Chat is built with Rust, and achieving cross-platform support is not easy, so prioritizing iOS may be an engineering constraint. The other is a strategic choice; with iOS holding a market share of nearly 55% in the U.S., X's core user base being in the U.S., prioritizing iOS means focusing on their core user base rather than engaging in direct competition with Android-dominated emerging markets and WhatsApp.
These two interpretations are not mutually exclusive, leading to the same result: X Chat's debut saw it willingly forfeit 73% of the global smartphone user base.
This matter has been described by some: X Chat, along with X Money and Grok, forms a trifecta creating a closed-loop data system parallel to the existing infrastructure, similar in concept to the WeChat ecosystem. This assessment is not new, but with X Chat's launch, it's worth revisiting the schematic.
X Chat generates communication metadata, including information on who is talking to whom, for how long, and how frequently. This data flows into X's identity system. Part of the message content goes through the Ask Grok feature and enters Grok's processing chain. Financial transactions are handled by X Money: external public testing was completed in March, opening to the public in April, enabling fiat peer-to-peer transfers via Visa Direct. A senior Fireblocks executive confirmed plans for cryptocurrency payments to go live by the end of the year, holding money transmitter licenses in over 40 U.S. states currently.
Every WeChat feature operates within China's regulatory framework. Musk's system operates within Western regulatory frameworks, but he also serves as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This is not a WeChat replica; it is a reenactment of the same logic under different political conditions.
The difference is that WeChat has never explicitly claimed to be "end-to-end encrypted" on its main interface, whereas X Chat does. "End-to-end encryption" in user perception means that no one, not even the platform, can see your messages. X Chat's architectural design does not meet this user expectation, but it uses this term.
X Chat consolidates the three data lines of "who this person is, who they are talking to, and where their money comes from and goes to" in one company's hands.
The help page sentence has never been just technical instructions.
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TAO is Elon Musk, who invested in OpenAI, and Subnet is Sam Altman
The era of "mass coin distribution" on public chains comes to an end
Soaring 50 times, with an FDV exceeding 10 billion USD, why RaveDAO?
1 billion DOTs were minted out of thin air, but the hacker only made 230,000 dollars
After the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, when will the war end?
Before using Musk's "Western WeChat" X Chat, you need to understand these three questions
The X Chat will be available for download on the App Store this Friday. The media has already covered the feature list, including self-destructing messages, screenshot prevention, 481-person group chats, Grok integration, and registration without a phone number, positioning it as the "Western WeChat." However, there are three questions that have hardly been addressed in any reports.
There is a sentence on X's official help page that is still hanging there: "If malicious insiders or X itself cause encrypted conversations to be exposed through legal processes, both the sender and receiver will be completely unaware."
No. The difference lies in where the keys are stored.
In Signal's end-to-end encryption, the keys never leave your device. X, the court, or any external party does not hold your keys. Signal's servers have nothing to decrypt your messages; even if they were subpoenaed, they could only provide registration timestamps and last connection times, as evidenced by past subpoena records.
X Chat uses the Juicebox protocol. This solution divides the key into three parts, each stored on three servers operated by X. When recovering the key with a PIN code, the system retrieves these three shards from X's servers and recombines them. No matter how complex the PIN code is, X is the actual custodian of the key, not the user.
This is the technical background of the "help page sentence": because the key is on X's servers, X has the ability to respond to legal processes without the user's knowledge. Signal does not have this capability, not because of policy, but because it simply does not have the key.
The following illustration compares the security mechanisms of Signal, WhatsApp, Telegram, and X Chat along six dimensions. X Chat is the only one of the four where the platform holds the key and the only one without Forward Secrecy.
The significance of Forward Secrecy is that even if a key is compromised at a certain point in time, historical messages cannot be decrypted because each message has a unique key. Signal's Double Ratchet protocol automatically updates the key after each message, a mechanism lacking in X Chat.
After analyzing the X Chat architecture in June 2025, Johns Hopkins University cryptology professor Matthew Green commented, "If we judge XChat as an end-to-end encryption scheme, this seems like a pretty game-over type of vulnerability." He later added, "I would not trust this any more than I trust current unencrypted DMs."
From a September 2025 TechCrunch report to being live in April 2026, this architecture saw no changes.
In a February 9, 2026 tweet, Musk pledged to undergo rigorous security tests of X Chat before its launch on X Chat and to open source all the code.
As of the April 17 launch date, no independent third-party audit has been completed, there is no official code repository on GitHub, the App Store's privacy label reveals X Chat collects five or more categories of data including location, contact info, and search history, directly contradicting the marketing claim of "No Ads, No Trackers."
Not continuous monitoring, but a clear access point.
For every message on X Chat, users can long-press and select "Ask Grok." When this button is clicked, the message is delivered to Grok in plaintext, transitioning from encrypted to unencrypted at this stage.
This design is not a vulnerability but a feature. However, X Chat's privacy policy does not state whether this plaintext data will be used for Grok's model training or if Grok will store this conversation content. By actively clicking "Ask Grok," users are voluntarily removing the encryption protection of that message.
There is also a structural issue: How quickly will this button shift from an "optional feature" to a "default habit"? The higher the quality of Grok's replies, the more frequently users will rely on it, leading to an increase in the proportion of messages flowing out of encryption protection. The actual encryption strength of X Chat, in the long run, depends not only on the design of the Juicebox protocol but also on the frequency of user clicks on "Ask Grok."
X Chat's initial release only supports iOS, with the Android version simply stating "coming soon" without a timeline.
In the global smartphone market, Android holds about 73%, while iOS holds about 27% (IDC/Statista, 2025). Of WhatsApp's 3.14 billion monthly active users, 73% are on Android (according to Demand Sage). In India, WhatsApp covers 854 million users, with over 95% Android penetration. In Brazil, there are 148 million users, with 81% on Android, and in Indonesia, there are 112 million users, with 87% on Android.
WhatsApp's dominance in the global communication market is built on Android. Signal, with a monthly active user base of around 85 million, also relies mainly on privacy-conscious users in Android-dominant countries.
X Chat circumvented this battlefield, with two possible interpretations. One is technical debt; X Chat is built with Rust, and achieving cross-platform support is not easy, so prioritizing iOS may be an engineering constraint. The other is a strategic choice; with iOS holding a market share of nearly 55% in the U.S., X's core user base being in the U.S., prioritizing iOS means focusing on their core user base rather than engaging in direct competition with Android-dominated emerging markets and WhatsApp.
These two interpretations are not mutually exclusive, leading to the same result: X Chat's debut saw it willingly forfeit 73% of the global smartphone user base.
This matter has been described by some: X Chat, along with X Money and Grok, forms a trifecta creating a closed-loop data system parallel to the existing infrastructure, similar in concept to the WeChat ecosystem. This assessment is not new, but with X Chat's launch, it's worth revisiting the schematic.
X Chat generates communication metadata, including information on who is talking to whom, for how long, and how frequently. This data flows into X's identity system. Part of the message content goes through the Ask Grok feature and enters Grok's processing chain. Financial transactions are handled by X Money: external public testing was completed in March, opening to the public in April, enabling fiat peer-to-peer transfers via Visa Direct. A senior Fireblocks executive confirmed plans for cryptocurrency payments to go live by the end of the year, holding money transmitter licenses in over 40 U.S. states currently.
Every WeChat feature operates within China's regulatory framework. Musk's system operates within Western regulatory frameworks, but he also serves as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This is not a WeChat replica; it is a reenactment of the same logic under different political conditions.
The difference is that WeChat has never explicitly claimed to be "end-to-end encrypted" on its main interface, whereas X Chat does. "End-to-end encryption" in user perception means that no one, not even the platform, can see your messages. X Chat's architectural design does not meet this user expectation, but it uses this term.
X Chat consolidates the three data lines of "who this person is, who they are talking to, and where their money comes from and goes to" in one company's hands.
The help page sentence has never been just technical instructions.
App