Gen Z's Crypto New Darling, How Much Further Can Robinhood Grow?

By: blockbeats|2025/02/10 21:15:03
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Original Title: "Gen Z's New Favorite Crypto, How Much Further Can Robinhood Rise?"
Original Source: RockFlow

Key Takeaways

1. Robinhood's rise in the crypto business stems from three key advantages the company has accumulated over the years: a large young user base established through its zero-commission model, the infrastructure and technological prowess behind product innovation, and user investment habits cultivated during the meme stock craze.

2. Recent quarterly reports have shown that Robinhood's stock price surge by 2024 was largely driven by the unexpectedly strong recovery of its crypto business. Particularly, in the third quarter of 2024, crypto revenue skyrocketed by 165% year-over-year to $61 million, becoming a dual engine of revenue growth alongside options trading.

3. Looking ahead, Robinhood's expansion into the EU and UK markets, coupled with its core user base (Millennials and Gen Z) being among the most active participants in cryptocurrencies, as well as the regulatory relaxation trend under the new administration and the potential benefits of crypto, will all provide significant growth opportunities for its crypto business.

In the 24/7 trading frenzy of the crypto market, one name is increasingly being mentioned by investors—Robinhood. This fintech platform founded by two Stanford students has not only disrupted traditional Wall Street with its zero-commission model but has also pioneered a new frontier in the crypto space.

When Baiju Bhatt and Vlad Tenev persisted in their dream after facing 75 failed funding attempts, they may not have imagined that Robinhood would eventually become a crucial bridge connecting traditional finance with digital assets.

Previous articles by RockFlow have provided detailed insights into Robinhood's history, the GME event, and Payment for Order Flow (PFOF)—"Robinhood: There Is No Free Lunch, Only Everlasting Bagholders."

In this article, RockFlow’s research team will delve into its core crypto business, exploring the reasons behind its 383% stock price surge in the past year, meticulously analyzing its current investment value, and bullish catalysts for the future.

1. Three Waves of Growth Setting the Stage for Crypto's Rise

Robinhood's outperformance in the crypto business is no coincidence. Three waves of revolutionary trends gradually built a strong user base and product innovation capability, laying a solid foundation for its subsequent soaring in the crypto business.

Robinhood initially entered the market with a zero-commission model, breaking the traditional brokerage's $8-10 commission barrier. By eliminating minimum deposit requirements and supporting fractional share trading, it successfully attracted a large number of young users, establishing initial trust in the platform. This laid a valuable user base for future expansion into innovative services like cryptocurrency.

In the second wave of growth, Robinhood demonstrated outstanding product innovation capabilities. By integrating gamification elements into the trading experience, creating a clean and intuitive interface design, and implementing an attractive stock reward mechanism, the platform achieved remarkable growth. During this period, the trading volume reached 9 times that of E-Trade, and the options contract trading volume even surpassed Charles Schwab by 88 times, showcasing its strong technological prowess and product operational capabilities. These capabilities were later successfully applied to the development of cryptocurrency trading products.

In the third wave of growth, Robinhood played a central role in the Meme Stock and cryptocurrency frenzy. The platform became the main battleground for popular stocks like GameStop, AMC, and cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin, setting a record in January 2021 with a monthly new account opening surpassing the total of all other brokerages. This period not only brought a large number of active users but, more importantly, nurtured users' investment habits in emerging asset classes.

Robinhood's revolutionary waves of user growth three times not only changed the brokerage industry landscape but also reshaped the entire investment culture. Under its influence, retail investors rose in power, accounting for 20% of total trading volume. The younger generation began to view investment as part of their lifestyle, a mindset shift that led to the popularization of innovative financial products like cryptocurrency.

The accumulated advantages—massive user base, strong technological capabilities, mature operational experience, and profound influence on investment culture—have together formed the cornerstone of Robinhood's success in the cryptocurrency field.

2. Crypto Revenue Surges, Driving Robinhood's Stock Price to Double

With the gradual recovery of the cryptocurrency market since 2023, Robinhood has also benefited. In its recent quarterly earnings reports, the share of cryptocurrency revenue has been increasing. The following chart shows Robinhood's revenue over the past 9 quarters, with the growth in options revenue and crypto revenue being particularly notable:

Gen Z's Crypto New Darling, How Much Further Can Robinhood Grow?

Taking the most recent 2024 Q3 earnings report as an example, crypto revenue surged by 165% year-over-year to $61 million, demonstrating remarkable growth momentum. This achievement not only confirms the company's strategic vision in the cryptocurrency field but also highlights its outstanding execution during the business expansion process.

Robinhood's revenue mainly comes from three key areas: Transaction Revenue, Net Interest Income, and Other Revenue. Among them, Transaction Revenue saw a significant year-over-year increase of 72% to reach $319 million, with the cryptocurrency business growing at a stunning rate of 165% year-over-year, becoming one of the most prominent segments. This achievement, along with Options Transaction Revenue ($202 million), formed the dual engines driving the company's revenue growth.

Despite its rapid growth, Robinhood has not overlooked the stability of its business. Net Interest Income increased by 9% year-over-year to $274 million, providing the company with a stable cash flow. Innovative services such as Gold subscriptions drove Other Revenue up by 42% to $44 million, and the 2.2 million strong cohort of premium users demonstrated user recognition of the platform's services.

Furthermore, the platform achieved over $100 billion in net deposits for the third consecutive quarter, highlighting users' high level of trust in Robinhood. This trust not only supports the development of traditional business but also provides a solid foundation for the expansion of innovative businesses such as cryptocurrency.

It is noteworthy that while pursuing high-speed growth, Robinhood has maintained cautious cost control, keeping the full-year 2024 operating expense outlook in the range of $1850-1950 million. This balanced growth and efficiency strategy provide assurance for the continued development of innovative businesses such as cryptocurrency.

From this financial report, it is clear that Robinhood is gradually transitioning from a traditional zero-commission trading platform to a comprehensive financial technology platform with cryptocurrency as a key growth driver. The outstanding performance of its cryptocurrency business not only brings substantial revenue growth to the company but also heralds a broad future in the new era of cryptocurrency.

3. Why Robinhood is Still Worth Looking Forward to in 2025?

Despite a 383% increase in Robinhood's stock price over the past year, based on its unique market opportunity, the RockFlow Research Team remains optimistic about its performance in 2025. This confidence is largely driven by its proactive approach in the cryptocurrency field.

Robinhood's core user base is mainly concentrated in the millennial and Gen Z demographics, precisely the most active participants in cryptocurrency. As wealth transfers from the older generation to the younger generation, these assets are likely to flow to platforms that better meet the investment needs of the new generation. As a bridge connecting traditional finance and crypto innovation, Robinhood will reap significant benefits from this wealth transfer wave.

In addition, Robinhood's international expansion strategy has placed particular emphasis on the importance of its crypto business: EU Market: Actively expanding its crypto business in the EU, positioning it as a key pillar of its internationalization; UK Market: Pioneering its business in the London financial district, laying the foundation for future crypto service expansion.

Furthermore, Robinhood has strengthened its crypto business competitiveness through various initiatives: for example, its developed futures trading infrastructure can provide technical support for future crypto derivative trading; the Gold membership service is expected to offer users more crypto-related privileges; continuous optimization of the trading interface and services can also enhance user engagement in crypto trading.

Overall, Robinhood's crypto business development reflects a clear global mindset and innovation orientation. By integrating traditional finance with crypto services, the company is building a more inclusive financial ecosystem. Its presence in the European market, especially the expansion of its crypto business, demonstrates the company's long-term commitment to the digital asset field. As the global crypto market continues to mature, Robinhood is poised to occupy a more significant position in this rapidly evolving space.

On the policy front, following Trump's official inauguration, the impact he will have on the stock market and the crypto industry will also be a key driver in boosting Robinhood's stock price.

It is well known that the Trump administration has always advocated for reduced financial regulation, potentially lowering compliance costs and simplifying compliance processes further. Fintech companies like Robinhood that rely on flexible operations may benefit from a more relaxed regulatory environment. If the crypto sector continues to receive clear policy support (such as a clear regulatory framework or relaxed restrictions), Robinhood's crypto business will continue to grow beyond expectations.

Moreover, although the new president has been in office for less than a month, the volatility he has brought to the market is significantly increasing. The market has already seen tariff policies implemented (and the subsequent delays) causing major fluctuations in the stock market, intensifying the volatile stock market, which significantly impacts retail trading activity. Robinhood's trading volume and commission revenue (especially from options) may noticeably increase as a result.

Conclusion

The RockFlow Research Team believes that Robinhood is demonstrating remarkable growth potential: its core user base (Millennials and Gen Z) are precisely the most active participants in cryptocurrency, benefiting from the upcoming generational wealth transfer; coupled with the improvement of the trading infrastructure, innovation in the Gold membership service, the Trump administration's regulatory relaxation tendencies, and the potential crypto benefits, these measures will collectively propel Robinhood to a more prominent position in the global crypto market.

While facing regulatory pressure and market volatility in the short term, Robinhood is expected to become an important bridge connecting traditional finance with the future of crypto in the long run. Its investment value is worth long-term attention.

Original Article Link

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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