Ripple SEC Settlement Sets Stage For XRP Price’s Next Breakout, $4 Target in Sight

Ripple (XRP) price surged sharply this week, climbing nearly 17% to $2.39 as of May 9, 2025. The rally follows a broader market resurgence, with Bitcoin blasting past the $103,000 mark and Ethereum breaking above $2,300, both marking fresh multi-week highs. XRP’s ascent comes after weeks of muted action, reflecting a return of risk appetite across the altcoin segment. Historically, XRP has often lagged behind Bitcoin’s breakouts before catching up during capital rotation phases. That pattern appears to be playing out again. As BTC and ETH show early signs of consolidation following their vertical runs, traders are beginning to rotate profits into other large-cap tokens, including XRP. This rotation dynamic has fueled past altcoin cycles and could now set the stage for an extended XRP upside if market conditions hold. Derivatives activity in XRP has also increased, with open interest rising steadily on major exchanges. Meanwhile, trading volumes have surged, suggesting both retail and institutional participation. Suppose Bitcoin holds above the six-figure threshold and ETH sustains its breakout structure. In that case, XRP may emerge as a high-beta play in the next leg of the rally, especially given its legal clarity and returning momentum across social metrics. Ripple SEC Deal Fuels XRP Momentum, Analyst Predicts $4.85 Target XRP price jumped to $2.30 on May 9 after Ripple Labs submitted a $50 million settlement proposal to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), signaling the possible end of their five-year legal standoff. The May 8 filing, jointly submitted to Judge Analisa Torres, seeks to vacate the injunction that previously barred Ripple from institutional XRP sales. It also reduces the SEC’s original $2 billion penalty demand to just 2.5% of the claim. If the judge approves the settlement, XRP will be legally confirmed as not a security—a milestone that clears years of regulatory fog. Market response has been swift. Trading volumes doubled, and XRP’s market cap soared past $132 billion. Several traders welcomed the news, with many claiming that the XRP price could now start a rally to new all-time highs. The ruling could unlock Ripple’s full-scale expansion of its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) product and fast-track pending XRP ETF proposals like the one filed by Franklin Templeton. The final decision is expected within days. Meanwhile, analyst EGRAG Crypto outlined five long-term bullish scenarios for XRP. Using historical fractals and cycle bottoms, his “ Yellow Scenario ” calls for a 1,563% pump from the $0.28 base, targeting $4.85. The projection aligns with XRP’s breakout above $2.20 and echoes similar rallies after legal milestones, including the July 2023 ruling on programmatic sales. If Ripple regains freedom to conduct institutional sales, and ETFs get greenlit under the Trump-era SEC , XRP could be primed for a parabolic leg—fueled by legal clarity, political tailwinds, and capital rotation. Bullish Signal Coming From Technical Setup Meanwhile, the XRP USD pair has formed a bullish technical setup called the falling wedge pattern. The structure forms as price contracts between two downward-sloping, converging trendlines, signaling weakening bearish momentum. Volume typically tapers off during the formation, indicating accumulation. The pattern suggests that sellers are losing control and a sharp breakout is likely once price breaches the upper resistance. The Ripple token’s price is currently struggling to break out above the pattern’s upper trendline resistance, suggesting bearish presence near the $2.5 price level. However, the breakout attempt aligns with Ripple’s legal resolution with the SEC, reinforcing market confidence just as a high-probability pattern is due for completion. As such, increasing buyer enthusiasm could help XRP price breakout and confirm the pattern. The falling wedge’s widest section is measured to calculate the price target. Traders then add the height of this move to the breakout level, giving a projected target near $3.80–$4. As such, XRP price could be readying for a spike of over 62% from current levels. Considering XRP’s breakout might come amid a major legal catalyst, the bullish narrative gains further weight. The technical structure suggests this isn’t just a knee-jerk reaction but part of a sustained move. If volume rises and market sentiment holds, XRP could push toward its projected target in the weeks ahead.