The six-year-old established project Airdrop Coin PI is about to be listed. Is it a social airdrop phenomenon or a financial scheme?

By: blockbeats|2025/02/12 14:30:03
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原文标题:《六年老牌项目派币 PI 终于要上线了,社交裂变神器还是资金盘?》
原文作者:Alvis,Marsbit

引言:当「手机挖矿」照进现实  

「2025 年 2 月 20 日 16:00,这个时间将被写入加密史册——要么是 Pi Network 登顶『平民区块链』的加冕时刻,要么是史上最大空气币泡沫的破裂起点。」  

The six-year-old established project Airdrop Coin PI is about to be listed. Is it a social airdrop phenomenon or a financial scheme?

6 年前,斯坦福博士 Nicolas Kokkalis 用一部手机 App 开启了一场社会实验:用户每天点击一次按钮即可「挖矿」,无需专业矿机,不耗电,零成本。如今,这场实验迎来终局——Pi Network 宣布开放网络(Open Network)将于北京时间 2025 年 2 月 20 日 16:00 正式上线,届时 Pi 币将首次实现与外部系统的互联互通。  

数据背后是冰火两重天:  

- 狂热支持者:全球 5000 万用户,超 1800 万人通过 KYC 验证,台湾商家甚至用 Pi 币购买奶茶、支付房租;  

- 质疑者:主网 6 年跳票,代币无法交易,交易所上架的「IOU 期货」被指炒作空气。  

这场争议漩涡中,Pi Network 究竟是一场技术革命,还是一场精心设计的资本游戏?本文将以最新数据与生态进展,拆解其价值逻辑与潜在风险。  

一、正面展望:平民化区块链的三大破局点  

1. 用户基数:碾压传统公链的「流量核弹」  

Pi Network 创造了加密史上最庞大的用户网络:  

- 5000 万注册用户,远超以太坊(1.2 亿地址中活跃用户不足 500 万);  

- 1800 万 KYC 认证用户,其中超 800 万已迁移至封闭主网,预计 2 月 20 日前突破 1000 万迁移目标;  

- 亚洲统治力:韩国 134 万用户超币安本土用户数,越南、菲律宾社群活跃度位列全球前三。  

这种用户规模使其具备天然生态孵化能力——即使仅有 1% 的用户参与开发,也能催生 5 万个 DApp(当前仅 80 个主网应用)。  

2. 技术民主化:手机挖矿与恒星共识的融合  

Pi Network 试图用两大创新降低区块链门槛:  

- 恒星共识协议(SCP):舍弃比特币的能源密集型 PoW,通过联邦拜占庭协议(FBA)实现节能共识,手机即可参与验证;  

- 分层角色系统:从「先锋」(每日签到挖矿)到「节点」(运行全节点),用户按贡献获得代币,形成自下而上的治理结构。  

这种设计让区块链首次触达非技术人群——家庭主妇、学生、退休老人均可参与,打破了「极客专属」的行业壁垒。  

3. 现实应用:从台湾奶茶店到跨境支付  

尽管主网未开放,Pi Network 已探索出独特的线下场景:  

- 台湾商圈实验:超过 200 家商户接受 Pi 币支付,从餐饮到房产租赁,1 Pi≈25-30 新台币(约 0.8-1 美元);  

- 跨境汇款测试:菲律宾劳工通过 Pi 钱包向家乡转账,手续费仅为传统银行 1/10;  

- 开发者激励:80 个主网应用涵盖教育、医疗、物流,例如「Pi Health」利用匿名医疗数据训练 AI 诊断模型。  

若开放网络顺利运行,这些场景可能从边缘实验升级为全球普惠金融基础设施。  

二、负面争议:信任赤字与估值泡沫  

1. 六年跳票史:狼来了的信任危机  

Pi Network 的主网时间表堪称「拖延教科书」。

Pi Network 于 2019 年推出,最初支持基于智能手机的加密货币挖矿,并经历了多个阶段,包括 Testnet、节点计划和封闭主网。目前,该项目正处于向开放网络过渡的阶段,预计将在 2025 年初进行主网迁移。

· 2019 年 3 月 14 日:正式发布 - Pi Network 在「圆周率日」(3 月 14 日)正式推出,以数学常数 π(3.14)命名。移动应用的初始版本允许用户(被称为「Pioneers」)直接通过智能手机挖掘 Pi 加密货币。

· 2020 年 3 月 14 日:Testnet 阶段启动 - 在 Pi Network 一周年之际,项目进入 Testnet 阶段,标志着迈向去中心化的重要一步。这一阶段支持全球分布式节点的部署,使社区开发者能够使用 Test-Pi 测试区块链并创建应用。

· 2020 年底:节点计划引入 - Pi Network 推出了节点计划,允许用户在个人计算机上运行网络节点。此举增强了 Pioneers 在网络安全性和交易验证方面的贡献,推动去中心化发展。

· 2021 年 12 月:封闭主网启动 - Pi Network 进入封闭主网阶段,主网正式上线,但仍处于防火墙保护下,阻止外部连接。在此期间,用户可以完成 KYC(身份验证)并将 Pi 迁移至实时主网,同时社区在封闭网络内构建应用和实用工具。

· 2023 年 10 月:路线图发布 - Pi 核心团队公布了一份基于里程碑的路线图,详细说明了过去的成就、当前的项目和未来计划。这份路线图提升了透明度,并概述了迈向开放主网的关键步骤。

· 2024 年 12 月:开放网络更新 - Pi Network 团队宣布,原计划于 2024 年底推出的开放主网将推迟至 2025 年第一季度。此决定旨在让更多用户完成 KYC 认证并将其代币迁移至主网,以确保生态系统更加包容和安全。

· 2025 年 1 月:主网迁移进展 - 截至 2025 年 1 月,Pi Network 共有超过 1800 万用户完成 KYC 认证,其中 800 多万用户已将其代币迁移至主网。团队将 KYC 和主网迁移的宽限期延长至 1 月 31 日,以进一步支持过渡。

尽管团队将延迟归因于 KYC 审核与生态建设,但社区质疑其故意拖延以维持代币稀缺性。

2. 千亿估值疑云:完全稀释后的致命陷阱  

按最大供应量 1000 亿枚计算,若 Pi 币达到 1 美元,其完全稀释估值(FDV)将高达 1000 亿美元——超过以太坊当前市值(3150 亿美元)的三分之一。但这面临两大悖论:  

- 流通量黑洞:目前仅 20 亿 Pi 迁移至主网,剩余 980 亿枚需通过挖矿逐步释放,若团队控制解锁节奏,可能引发抛压恐慌;  

- 应用场景不足:现有 80 个 DApp 多为工具类应用,缺乏 DeFi、NFT 等价值捕获场景,生态造血能力存疑。  

3. 监管与隐私:合规性双刃剑  

Pi Network 的合规化策略暗藏风险:  

- KYC 过度采集:用户需提交身份证、面部识别、居住证明,远超常规项目要求,存在数据泄露隐患;  

- 监管围剿风险:若 SEC 将 Pi 币判定为证券(类似 XRP 诉讼),其美国生态可能瞬间崩塌。  

三、开放网络上线:四大关键验证指标  

2025 年 2 月 20 日不仅是技术里程碑,更是 Pi Network 的价值试金石。以下四大指标将决定其成败:  

1. 交易所流动性测试  

- 真实交易量:若 HTX、Binance 等主流交易所开放 Pi 币现货交易,需观察是否出现「上线即崩盘」;  

- 价格锚定:当前台湾 P2P 价格(约 1 美元)与 IOU 期货价(48.3 美元)差异巨大,价差收敛方向预示市场信心。  

2. 节点去中心化程度  

- 验证节点分布:若前 10 节点控制超 50% 算力,将违背「平民区块链」初衷;  

- 抗审查能力:开放网络能否抵御政府级防火墙封锁,尤其在东南亚等敏感地区。  

3. 开发者迁徙潮  

- DApp 爆发速度:未来 3 个月主网应用能否突破 500 个,并出现至少一个现象级应用;  

- 跨链互通性:与以太坊、Solana 的资产桥接进度,决定其能否融入主流生态。  

4. 代币经济模型  

- 通胀控制:挖矿释放速度是否导致恶性通胀,参考 Helium 因代币超发导致的市值崩盘;  

- 燃烧机制:应用内手续费销毁比例,决定 Pi 币能否进入通缩周期。  

四、未来推演:三种可能情景  

情景一:乌托邦成真(概率 30%)  

- 关键假设:主网零故障、交易所日均交易量超 10 亿美元、出现百万级用户 DApp;  

- 价格预测:Pi 币站稳 5 美元,FDV 达 5000 亿美元,跻身加密市值前五;  

- 社会影响:成为发展中国家普惠金融基础设施,动摇 SWIFT 霸权。  

情景二:温和增长(概率 50%)  

- 关键假设:技术平稳但应用平庸,年通胀率控制在 15% 以内;  

- 价格预测:Pi 币在 0.5-2 美元震荡,市值与狗狗币相当(约 300 亿美元);  

- 社会影响:维持区域性支付工具地位,类似越南的 MoMo 电子钱包。  

情景三:泡沫破裂(概率 20%)  

- 关键假设:主网宕机、监管打击、团队抛售代币;  

- 价格预测:Pi 币暴跌至 0.1 美元以下,社区大规模维权;  

- 社会影响:引发全球性对「零成本挖矿」模式的信任危机。  

五、结语:一场关乎区块链信仰的社会实验  

Pi Network 的本质是一场社会协作实验——它用极简交互吸引海量用户,用延迟满足构建社区共识,用平民叙事挑战精英主义。其成败不仅关乎代币价格,更将验证两个终极命题:  

1. 区块链是否需要技术门槛?若 5000 万小白用户能塑造繁荣生态,Web3 大规模采用将不再遥远;  

2. 价值是否必须源于稀缺?若零成本挖矿的 Pi 币获得市场认可,比特币的「数字黄金」叙事可能遭遇挑战。  

个人观点:  

Pi Network 的开放网络上线是 2025 年最具悬念的加密事件。其庞大用户基数和现实应用场景具备颠覆潜力,但六年拖延史与估值泡沫亦如达摩克利斯之剑。短期看,主网上线后可能因流动性释放出现价格波动;长期看,其命运取决于能否从「社交裂变神器」进化为「价值创造引擎」。若团队能克制贪婪、聚焦生态,Pi 币或许真能成为加密世界的「平民货币」;若重蹈资金盘覆辙,这场实验将成为区块链史上最昂贵的教训。  

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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