Why Mikko Rantanen’s Play Will Impact Mitch Marner’s Free Agency

DALLAS, TEXAS – MAY 03: Mikko Rantanen #96 of the Dallas Stars celebrates after scoring an ... More empty-net hat-trick goal against the Colorado Avalanche during the third period in Game Seven of the First Round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at American Airlines Center on May 03, 2025 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images) The 2024-25 season for Avalanche was never short of storylines. They started the season on a four-game losing streak, then recovered by winning five in a row. Just a month into the season, the Avs traded for not one , but two goaltenders in a week span, who both remained on the roster into the postseason. And before the eventual end to their campaign, the playoffs were highlighted by the return of Captain Gabriel Landeskog. Landeskog had not played in a game in nearly three years due to injuries suffered in their 2021 Stanley Cup championship. All of these stories were washed away in Game Seven of their first-round matchup against the Dallas Stars, as Mikko Rantanen got the last laugh against his former club. After being held to just one point in the first four games of the first round matchup between Colorado and Dallas, Rantanen took over the series in the final three games. With three points in Game Five, four points in Game Six, and a hat trick in Game Seven to win the series, Rantanen wound up leading both teams in points for the series. Now, as Rantanen carried that level of play into the second round against the Winnipeg Jets with another hat trick , he has quickly become the best scorer in the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs. But how did a player of Rantanen’s caliber end up with the Stars? And better yet, how has he already been signed to a long-term deal before hitting the open market? For those who forgot, Mikko Rantanen started the 2025 season with the Colorado Avalanche, as he had done in each of the last nine years. In that time , Rantanen had won a Stanley Cup, collected 681 career points, and gotten to play on the same line as Nathan MacKinnon. With a looming free agency at the end of the season for Rantanen, there was speculation over the future of the Avs’ forward with the team. DALLAS, TEXAS – MAY 03: Nathan MacKinnon #29 of the Colorado Avalanche and Mikko Rantanen #96 of ... More the Dallas Stars shakes hands after the Stars 4-2 win in Game Seven of the First Round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at American Airlines Center on May 03, 2025 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images) The biggest question mark for Avalanche General Manager Chris MacFarland would be forced to sign Rantanen to a bigger contract than MacKinnon’s 8-year, $100 million deal that he signed in 2023. Even if MacKinnon did not mind being the second-highest paid player on the team, the contracts of these two forwards and impending free agency for Cale Makar were going to pose issues on the depth of the team. So, MacFarland made the shocking decision to trade Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes, which was as shocking to the winger as it was to the hockey world, according to multiple reports. The trade initially appeared questionable, especially as Rantanen struggled to find his footing in Carolina and hesitated on a contract extension. However, both the Stars and Hurricanes ultimately vindicated the move by advancing further in the playoffs than the Avalanche. Dallas also managed to sign Rantanen following the Trade Deadline acquisition. And at 8-years for $96 million, the contract has already begun to already look like a bargain. This will become especially apparent in the offseason, where Mitch Marner looks to become one of the top-paid forwards in the NHL. After reports that Toronto was discussing a deal with Carolina to exchange the two top-liners, Marner will likely be listening to other team’s pitches this summer. TORONTO, CANADA – APRIL 27: Mitchell Marner #16 of the Toronto Maple Leafs gets set for play to ... More resume against the Boston Bruins in Game Four of the First Round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena on April 27, 2024 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Bruins defeated the Maple Leafs 3-1. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images) And, with a growing trend of players signing long-term extensions before reaching free agency, we have not seen a free agent like Marner hit the open market since Artemi Panarin in 2019. With Rantanen signing ahead of free agency, this leaves Marner’s competition in free agency to forwards like Brock Boeser and Nikolaj Ehlers, which Marner has a separation of in terms of individual production. But if Rantanen and Marner were to both hit free agency, Rantanen would have likely become the top-paid free agent in NHL history instead of Marner. For one, Rantanen leads Marner in this year’s playoff. In 10 games played, Rantanen has 18 points compared to Marner’s 12, while also being a larger force in the physical aspects of the playoffs. This is true for their career playoff statistics as well, which has been the knock on Marner in his time with the Maple Leafs. While the two players have a significantly different role for their respective club, and Rantanen’s Avalanche have seen more playoff success than Marner’s Maple Leafs, these playoff question marks may reduce the total value of Marner’s contract, despite compiling 741 regular season points in just 657 games. In fact, even without Rantanen directly on the market this summer, his $12 million average annual value (AAV) could still significantly influence Marner’s contract negotiations in free agency. With at least two games remaining in the Maple Leafs’ season, Marner still has an opportunity to enhance his market value through strong performance. This is particularly true if he can excel against the Florida Panthers, a team known for its consistently physical style of play in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylersmall/2025/05/13/why-mikko-rantanens-play-will-impact-mitch-marners-free-agency/